01/03/26

Good morning! It’s Saturday, January 3rd.

National Write to Congress Day

And oh buddy, do I have some things to write to them about.

And now, the news.

Special Episode: Venezuela

-via CBS News, NBC News, CNN, Election Integrity Project, Amnesty International, AP News, and The Daily Beast

This will be a special episode. I’m recording this Saturday afternoon, Los Angeles time. Things are moving fast. I don’t know what things will look like by the time you hear this, but I wanted to give you the latest and, more important, context.

This morning, just after 2 AM local time, in Caracas, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, who I will refer to here as the president but understand that, for reasons I’ll explain here in this episode, that’s a very complicated issue and he is not seen that way by many Venezuelans or many in the international community, as well as his wife, were captured by US forces.

Following that, President Trump announced that the United States will, apparently, be running Venezuela, as well as tap their oil reserves.

Like I said, things are moving fast. But this story is shocking.

How did we get here?

On July 5th, 1811, Venezuela became the first Spanish colony in South America to declare independence from Spain. 29 years later, they became fully sovereign in the Venezuelan War of Independence, as well as their separation from Gran Colombia.

In their early years, they primarily made their money through agriculture - things like coffee and cocoa.

Then, on April 15th, 1914, the country was changed forever when the Caribbean Petroleum Company became the first company to successfully strike oil in commercially significant quantities.

For the next twenty years, foreign oil companies came in, with the US, British, and Dutch companies dominating the field. But although all of this was happening on Venezuelan land, and it was Venezuelan oil the country only got royalties.

As a country, they didn’t hold the power.

They were oil rich, though. The agriculture industry fell, since the oil production was where the money was, forcing the country into an economy that’s only being propped up by this one thing.

And while they did see ports, roads, and other infrastructure grow, this really only propped up Juan Vicente Gómez.

Who’s that? Ruling from 1908 to 1935, Gómez was one of the longest-ruling dictators in Latin American history. And we’re talking about a true dictator. No elections. No political parties. He had his opposition jailed, exiled, or killed.

Those royalties from the oil? Yeah, they built roads and ports, and paid off the country’s foreign debt, but they also lined his personal pockets. Part of the reason he was in power so long is that he used some of the money to pay for security to make sure no one took him out… of power.

When he died in 1935, Venezuela had money and infrastructure, but universities and labor movements had been crushed, and the political culture as a whole was basically wiped out.

From there, the country sees decades of moving towards democracy, then losing it, then trying to rebuild it.

Look at us as a country.

Democracy is this magical, messy, fragile thing that we are holding desperately onto right now. To lose it and then continue to fight over and over again to gain it back? That takes work. And of course it’s not going to be easy. Or linear.

While all of that was happening with their leadership, oil production in the country continues to boom and Venezuela went from being one of the poorer economies in Latin America to one of the richest.

In 1960, they became a founding member of OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The main goal of OPEC is for its members to work together to stabilize prices and prevent overproduction.

They were a US ally.

But what goes up…

Oil prices started to fall in the 80s and 90s. Again, everything in this country was funded by this one thing. But suddenly there’s an increase in international production, which meant they weren’t selling as much. And then thanks to two oil crisises (crisisi??) in the 70s, countries started reducing their use.

Which meant Venezuela needed to borrow. Their debt exploded, leading to Black Friday. Not the super cheap TV kind. In 1983, their currency collapsed.

And their government was like – sounds bad. We should… make no changes and continue to borrow a ton of money. The super rich were fine. Everyone else were forced to pay the price, financially yes but also in things like the deterioration of public services. Gas prices went up. Transportation prices went up. Social spending went down.

A tale as old as time.

What do you think happens when the super rich are doing great and everyone else is getting screwed specifically because of decisions that the government is making?

The Caracazo

Mass protests broke out in 1989, not only in the capital city of Caracas, but other cities as well. Over the seven days, at least five articles of the country’s constitution were suspended. Yes, there was looting. Yes, there were riots.

But army lieutenant Jesús Manuel Zambrano said he received instructions that day, saying, “Go and neutralize that looting, how you do it is not my problem, but neutralize it."

In the end, though the exact numbers aren’t known, hundreds, if not thousands, of people were killed.

The state turned its gun on its own people to protect an economic system that they broke.

This idea of democracy that had been fought for in fits and spurts suddenly became this thing that didn’t seem possible there.

Which was the perfect door for a man named Hugo Chavez to enter through.

In 1992 he attempted a coup as a mid-level army officer. It didn’t work, and when he gave himself up, he gave a brief speech in which he told the remaining coup members to lay down their weapons, saying they had only failed por ahora.

For now.

He became a symbol for millions of Venezuelans and though he was jailed for 2 years, he was pardoned in 1994. In 1998 he won the presidency.

A new Constitution was approved the following year. Voting rights were expanded. Democracy itself expanded. But also constricted. Because it all flowed through one person.

In 2002, there was a failed coup against Chavez. How the turntables, ya know? Around this time, oil production temporarily collapsed.

In 2013, oil was a political tool and production in the country was stagnant.

Democracy had failed Venezuelans. Multiple times. And so, for many, it probably felt like this strong leader, who they liked, who was delivering tangible improvements… it probably didn’t feel like yet another centralization of power. It wasn’t one big power grab.

It expanded over time. Little by little.

The courts.

The legislature.

The media.

Weakened a little here. A little more there.

There was no moment when this happened; it just… slowly, loyalty started to matter more than independence. And while that was happening, money from oil was still coming in and funding social programs. The visuals that would raise a little bit of a red flag were masked.

Lives were improving.

So by the time the signs were really there, by the time those concerns about freedom of press or the independence of the judicial, or executive overreach, by the time any of that really came to the forefront – the system was already built around one man.

And it doesn’t mean Venezuelans are naïve. Were being naïve. It doesn’t mean they weren’t paying attention. It doesn’t mean they didn’t, or don’t, care about democracy.

They chose a leader over institutions because those institutions failed them. And then, in the end, they were failed yet again.

In 2013, when Chavez died, his vice president, a man named Nicolás Maduro took over. He served as the interim leader until he was formally elected to office in a special election. This is who Chavez explicitly, “as clear as the full moon,” picked as his successor.

Now, at the beginning, you’ll remember that I said referring to him as president is complicated.

In 2013, he won that special election with about 50.6% of the vote and 80% turnout.

In 2018 he ran for his full six-year term. 46% of voters turned out for this election, making it the lowest in the country’s history. Remember everything I told you about this country. Everything I said about the way it has fought for democracy. Gained it and lost it in fits and starts.

80% of voters turned out in 2013.

Five years later, are we really expected to believe that the country would see the lowest turn out, lowest by 15% (and that was back in 2000), naturally?

No. The reason for the low turnout is that the political opposition decided not to participate. Why?

The election was held months early, meaning opposition groups couldn’t truly organize. Which is find, because the major opposition candidates were banned, jailed, exiled, disqualified, or just pressured to not run. State media was used to influence voters for Maduro. Social benefits and food aid were tied to loyalty to Maduro. Public employees were pressured to vote for Maduro.

Not hard to “win” when you take away every other option. 46% turnout… Maduro has always been less the president and more, kind of… the guy in power.

46 countries, America included, do not recognize the legitimacy of Maduro’s election.

In 2024 he “won re-election” through the same tactics.

What happened on Saturday morning requires us to hold two thoughts in our heads at the same time. I know we can do it. I promise you.

Venezuela, and Venezuelans, deserve better than Nicolás Maduro. Let them celebrate. Let them react however they want. Unless you are from there, or are there right now, you have no idea what today feels like. I have no idea.

Under his governance, the country has seen political imprisonment of opposition leaders, excessive and sometimes deadly force in response to protests, the disappearance of critics and civilians, the weakening of checks and balances of strengthening of state power, food shortages, food and medicine shortages, widespread corruption, and as the country watched his health system collapse, his government has restricted international assistance.

And also…

In this country, we have a president who wants to be a dictator. He’s said things like “you’ll never have to vote again” and “I’ll be a dictator, but only on day one.”

And without Congress, he led a military operation to remove the leader of a country and is now vowing to run that country. Would he perhaps like to show us he can successfully run this country before he goes off and runs another one, first?

This is a clear violation of Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution, as well as the War Powers Resolution.

But yet again, a US president has removed a leader and put troops into a country… over oil.

Two things can be true.

Two people can be bad at once.

In the end, we don’t get to be in charge of the way Venezuelans react to this news any more than we get to be in charge of their country.

From day one of Trump 2.0, this administration has kidnapped Venezuelans off the streets here in America and sent them to a self-proclaimed torture prison in El Salvador, for the grave crime of being Venezuelan. They are still there. Right now. Hundreds.

He took away their temporary protected status.

Pete Hegseth is bombing boats because he’s decided they’re carrying drugs. He’s offered zero proof.

Trump declared the entire country a foreign terrorist organization. Whole thing. That’s impossible. (Literally… it changed nothing.)

He’s lied over and over and over and said all of this is because of drugs. Fentanyl.

Which comes in through Mexico. Produced by chemicals sourced in China.

But none of this was ever about Fentanyl. Or gangs.

It was always about oil.

So while the president, who appeared to struggle to stay awake during the press conference announcing that we’d overtaken another country’s president, tries to convince you otherwise, remember that if he is running his mouth, he is lying.

I said this during the New Year’s Eve show but it bears repeating.

Venezuela is real.

It’s not a punchline. It’s not an example.

It is real. The people there are real.

And after everything he has done, it is not nothing that Maduro is out.

Anyone who tells you they know what’ll happen next is… lying.

And that’s it. That’s the special episode.

I’m proud of Venezuelans.

To continue to fight for your country, over and over, because you know it can be better. Because you demand better of it.

And because of that, and because if we are writing to Congress, this is the one thing I would like to talk to them about… I’m proud of you.